【摘要】Since the reform and opening,the economy of our country has appeared obvious Juglar periodic phenomenon.The present economy expansion is just the embodiment of this periodic relation.Seeing from the periodic relation,the growth rate of investment will reach the top point in this year,then turn to recession; the growth rate of economy will reach the top point in the next year and then turn to recession.Though the extent of the recession is not as so serious as last period,it will continue several years.The correct way of keeping the economy stable is to adopt the expansion policy that is mild and takes with the structural adjustment,but mot the retrenchment policy.The latter one will make the economy never be able to recover after a setback just as the “soft landing” policy in the last period.