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日元贷款与中日贸易投资:是否双赢?——来自DLS方法的证据

2005-11-15分类号:F832.6;

【作者】阎东鹏  王清容
【部门】清华大学经济管理学院   清华大学经济管理学院
【摘要】Recently,Japanese government and media always complain that their ODA only benefits China and hurts Japan,while some scholars in China argue that the initial goal of Japan’s ODA is for serving their trading with and investing in China,not for China’s development.Both opinions are plausible and waiting for reliable evidence.This paper use Dynamic Least Squares Method to estimate the co-integrated relationships among Japan’s ODA,Japan’s FDI to China and China-Japan’s bilateral trade,and then test the Granger causality relationships among them.Our econometric analysis indicates that Japan’s ODA do push up the bilateral trade and Japan’s FDI to China.There clearly exists a Win-Win link.At the same time,we found no evidence for some Chinese scholars’claim that ODA decisions of Japanese government have been driven by the bilateral trade and investment.
【关键词】日元贷款  日本对华直接投资  中日贸易  动态最小二乘法(DLS)  Granger因果关系
【基金】
【所属期刊栏目】统计研究
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