【摘要】Generally,when we have to give a social evaluation or make a population prediction about an area,we measure the level of death firstly.But when it comes to a small area or a small population,the death indexes,such as age-specific death rate,will fluctuate irregularly,if we get it form the census data with the common methods.There are several methods to resolve it.But few scholars in China use Bayesian estimation method which base on decision-making theory.The author consider that this way is simple and efficient,it is worthy of generalizing.