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我国宏观经济和金融总量平稳性的再思考

2006-10-15分类号:F222.33

【作者】滕建州  
【部门】东北师范大学应用统计教育部重点实验室  
【摘要】This paper applies minimum multiple LM unit-root testing to examine 10 Chinese macroeconomic and financial series that allow for the possibility of up to two endogenous structural breaks.We find that 9 out of 10 series, which are GDP,GDP per capita,total number of employed persons,nominal wages,real wages,bank credit,deposit liabilities,final consumption and trade,can be more accurately characterized as a segmented trend stationary process around one or two structural breaks as opposed to a stochastic unit root process.The conclusions have important implications for policy-makers to formulate long-term economic growth strategy and short-run stabilization policies,as well as investigate the relationship among the variables.
【关键词】宏观总量  多重结构断点  最小LM单位根检验  分段趋势平稳
【基金】
【所属期刊栏目】统计研究
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