【摘要】After analyzing monthly Chinese total retail sales of consumer goods from 1978 to 2005,the author establishes ARIMA model.The model provides excellent forecasting when evaluating in terms of MAPE.Secondly,the article forecasts Chinese total retail sales of consumer goods are RMB 7892 billion Yuan in 2006 and RMB 9269 billion Yuan in 2007.Total retail sales of consumer goods in countries are 1/4 of that in cities,so we should improve peasants'expense.