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基于ARCH类模型的国内油价波动分析

2005-04-15分类号:F426.22

【作者】潘慧峰  张金水
【部门】清华大学经管学院数量经济专业   清华大学经济管理学院经济系
【摘要】The ARCH type models are applied on the weekly data of crude oil return from January 1997 to November 2003 to examine the features of volatility in China market.Our findings indicate that there exists significant conditional heteroskedasticity but with low persistence in the return of crude oil.The leverage effect in oil market is different from the one in the stock market,which shows that upward movements in the price of crude oil are followed by higher volatilities than downward movements of the same magnitude.Based on this,this paper analyzes the cause of the leverage effect in crude oil market from the angel of nonrenewable resources and discusses the countermeasures to deal with the volatility in oil price in terms of the situation of China.
【关键词】原油价格  波动性  TARCH  杠杆效应
【基金】
【所属期刊栏目】统计研究
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