Is China’s Economy Overestimated?——Counter-Evidence from the Underground Economy
2019-05-08分类号:F124
【部门】School of Economics Nankai University
【摘要】Over the past four decades of reform and opening up since 1978, China’s GDP has been growing at 9.5% on an annual average basis. While some scholars believe that China’s economic growth is systematically overestimated, this paper carries out an estimation of China’s underground economy and finds that due to the existence of the underground economy, China’s real GDP is systematically underestimated. China’s official GDP statistics generally reflect a real picture of its economic growth. The size of China’s underground economy is significantly influenced by total electricity consumption, the selfemployed ratio, labor participation rate and money supply. These findings are of great significance for policy-making.
【关键词】underground economy latent variable cash ratio model multiple indicators multiple causes(MIMIC) model
【基金】
【所属期刊栏目】China Economist
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